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It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. Henry Ford


Those who surrender freedom for security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one. Benjamin Franklin
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The idea that you know what is true is dangerous, for it keeps you imprisoned in the mind. It is when you do not know, that you are free to investigate. ~ Nisargadatta Maharaj


Saturday 16 January 2010

Mining




The performance of the mining stocks since the panic lows last year has been phenomenal,presumably driven by optimism about Chinese and emerging market growth .Many of the charts look similar to this one of Billiton (I have posted the daily,weekly and monthly candle charts) Billiton looks vulnerable to a double top.Last week was a reversal,making new highs but closing below the previous week's close.I believe the candlestick terminology is "dark cloud cover" - a higher open,followed by a close in the lower half of the previous candle's real body.On the monthly chart we are threatening to form a bearish long tailed candle as we did at the last high but we will have to wait till the end of January to confirm this.( I am not sure what this pattern is called) We are 87 weeks from the old high,2 weeks short of a fibonacci 89 and 60 weeks from the low.Natural fibonacci levels (5,8,13,21...) have provided good support/resistance,rather like the Apple chart I posted.At the very least this looks vulnerable to profit-taking.
I think it is useful to look at daily,weekly and monthly charts for the different insights they reveal.Quarterly and yearly charts can also be revealing.The longer term charts give longer-term signals while the short term chart signals are more sensitive for positioning.(and more prone to failure)

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